the morning after...

Is it safe to come out now? Has the dust settled?

No, of course the dust hasn't settled. The Chris fans are mad. And they have a right to be, just as the Taylor fans would and the Kat fans would. [The Elliott fans are so used to biting their nails on Wednesdays that we have no nails left...] By this time of the season the final four kids have built up considerable followings, and the fans have invested so much time and so many emotions in them, that the ousting of their favorite is bound to bring out a flood of reactions from sadness to anger.

This is nothing new. Tamyra fans, LaToya fans and Constantine fans empathize.

But with four good kids putting on a helluva good show, we knew that somebody was gonna be crying foul the next night. It's the rules of the game. Yeah, I know. Rules suck sometimes.

So it's time to pick apart what happened.

I know everyone's using the term shocker to describe Chris' ouster last night, because he was "one of the favorites." But I think that some people are forgetting the rules of this game.

Dave has pointed out (and he was one of the very few bloggers, by the way, to accurately predict Chris' elimination, so I bow to him for being ballsy! ) that one of Chris' problems was his refusal to play the game, much like Nadia Turner refused to do last season. To be successful, these kids must show their versatility; that's the whole reason for theme nights, to kick them out of their genre boxes. Simon called him out on this earlier in the competition, and he did find his way to the bottom two before launching a comeback of sorts that landed him in the top two (with Kat, if you'll recall) at the final six level.

I think this was part of his problem, because he did begin to show the softer side of Chris after Simon's admonition, but it certainly was not the only disadvantage Chris had, most of which was totally out of his control.

By the time we're at six, fan blocs are established. It's rare to find a fan of one suddenly switch to another, even though many people have two faves and split their votes accordingly. I cannot count the number of times throughout the season I've heard or read someone say "I like Bucky, but I also like Elliott," or "I love Ace, but I also like Elliott," or "I like both Paris and Elliott." So, as these kids leave, the decision for whom to vote is easy. And that's been a boon for Elliott, who's now in the final three.

Chris was the only rocker in this field of pop wannabes (Ace, Lisa), R&B singers (Mandisa, Paris) and country kids (Bucky, Pickler). Last year, after Constantine's sixth-place "shocker," many people gravitated towards Bo and threw him their votes. Those votes did not go to Carrie or to Anthony, but to the other rocker dude.

Chris didn't have any rocker dude, so as displaced fans started to merge with surviving blocs, most gravitated toward kids with similar styles or kids they just liked. I would suspect (and no, I haven't done any scientific sampling - I'm just conjecturing from reading blog comments and message boards) that a large percentage of Pickler voters threw their support to Katharine. Likewise, I suspect that a significant percentage of Ace and Paris supporters went to Elliott, with a little bit of Taylor sprinkled in for flavor.

Chris just came in on the short end of that stick. Now couple that with a large and fervent fan base rallying to support their girl after getting two nasty judges reviews, and it's a recipe for a classic LaToya.

And Simon going around invoking his name as one of the final two certainly didn't help matters any, because many people, like me, are sick to death of producers and judges blatantly attempting to manipulate the vote by telling us who's going to win. Simon told Melissa McGhee to pack her bags and people phoned in votes like mad, not so much in support of Melissa but to spite Simon. Never ever discount the motivation of the anti-Simon effort.

But the fallout is pretty much the same, regardless of the rationale. Teeth will be gnashed. Anger will manifest itself in blame for the remaining contestants. There will be cries of rigging and petitions will be created. Some will boycott the show. Others will decide to back their second favorite or to back the one who stands the best chance of ousting the one they like least.

Just like always.

Because THIS is American Idol.