bringing out the elvis in them...

It's usually about this time every season that I start getting a little melancholy. After all, with only four remaining, that signals only three more performance episodes, then that long decline into boredom as the day after Monday simply becomes boring old Tuesday again.

And it's even tougher this week, even though, as a whole, it's not been my favorite season, because I don't know that there's ever been a final four that has so many favorites. Just glancing through message boards and blog comment threads reveals that each of them has a significant (and vocal) fan group, each group genuinely believing their kid has a shot at winning. Even though in past years each kid had fans, usually even those fans knew that the chance of their fave getting to sing the final song was remote, because there was always the one everyone knew was destined to win.

That's just not so this year, even though Simon has been making the rounds, touting a Chris/Taylor finale with Katharine as a darkhorse (he musta forgotten we have four, not three, kids left) and Randy hitting the talk show circuit advancing the idea of a first-time all-male final three (at least he remembered the other guy). It's anyone's game to win. Or to lose.

Funny thing today. I had to buy a birthday gift, and while I am excited, as usual, that tonight's Idol night, I couldn't help but be a little sad that one of these kids is gonna sing for the last time. The minute I started the car, Elvis was there, singing Kentucky Rain to me, one of my favorite Elvis tunes. I sang back to him, but don't tell anybody. About three minutes into the store he was there again. This time he was All Shook Up. I did not sing back to him, considering I was in the middle of Wal-Mart, and that place is strange enough without some old lady shaking her groove thing in the toy aisle.

Yep. Elvis is in the building.

So what's going to happen tonight? The song list, as reported by America Online, is interesting in its presentation. I do expect Elliott to get the pimp spot, since they refuse to allow the same person the same performance spot two weeks in a row and Taylor was last pimp standing. Putting Katharine first wouldn't surprise me, since she will be memorable anyway as the last woman standing. So I would expect Taylor to get slotted in the front two, so Chris might just round out in third.

Now, before anybody gets all shook up (eh, sorry...) about Elliott going last, it is important to remember that Anthony Fedorov performed fourth in last year's top 4 show, and it didn't help him any, becoming the first Idol to get booted after performing last in a non-finale show. But if Elliott were to get that position, he has every opportunity to capitalize on it.

Except for Chris, it looks like they are choosing one ballad/one uptempo selection. It will be interesting to see how each of them chooses to offer them. I would expect Katharine and Elliott to go with the uptempo number first, considering their strengths lie in their ballads, and both of them are choosing ballads that have the potential to stop the show and bring Paula to her knees. Taylor might reverse his choices, especially if he's surrounded by balladeers, opting to slow it down in the first half and then bring it to a close with the Taylor we have come to expect and that Simon has come to loathe. (And the more Simon loathes, the more we loves it!)

Elliott is by far the most in Trouble. (eh, couldn't help it.) And he's not stupid; he knows it. And he also should know that there are a lot of displaced Paris fans who may just want to vote for him like crazy, considering how vocal Paris has been over the past week about her adoration of him. And there will still be those undecided voters, or those new viewers who are just looking for someone to back. He has the advantage, if one wants to call it that, of being viewed by many as the underdog, the most unlikeliest of Idol contestants, even moreso than Taylor, and some newer or displaced voters may simply hang their hat on the least likely to advance.

But Elliott has the misfortune of needing to be better than good. He must be great in order to pick up enough voters to push him past one of the other three. If he struggles, or if, as I would expect, his reviews are lukewarm, his fans will vote with both hands and a couple of toes. But his fans have been doing that already, and he still ended up bottom two last week.

So, if Elliott does survive, who would he put at most risk? Not Taylor. Taylor has as much chance of hitting bottom two as Kellie Pickler does of being invited to join Mensa. I would expect the most likely non-Elliott ouster would be Katharine, even though she is the darling of the judges. I really do not believe things are done accidently on or by this show, and Randy's suggestion that we could see our first all-guy trio is still ringing in my ears.

But we must remember, this is fourth. (Oh geesh, here she goes with those stupid trends again...) And it's all about the trends, of course. (Knew it.) In every odd-numbered season, fourth place is the shocker of all shockers. It's when Tamyra, after one crappy performance all season in the first year, got booted in favor of Nikki McKibbin. It was when LaToya was felled by that place called Hawaii in season three. Now it's season five. I predicted a shocker fourth early on. I don't know how much of a "shock" it would be to anyone other than Simon if Kat were to meet her doom. I would think that the only shock at this point would be anybody not named Elliott or Katharine.

So, having heard nothing, except song selections, here's what I think is gonna happen. And I do realize I'm going to go so far out on a limb that I will need a new zip code and run the risk of making everyone guffaw at my stupidity, but hey, it's the end of the season, and I've just been far too conservative thus far.

Taylor's fans will keep him on the couch cause the man's not hit the seal once, so why start now? Elliott's fans, like me, will be dialing his numbers with DialIdol, one landline and one cellphone while texting on a second cell. The Chris and Kat fans will be doing the same.

It will all come down to the Paris voters and the new people. (Have I put this off long enough?)

Chris and Kat will hit the seal and we'll have our first all-male revue next week. And then I will do cartwheels nekkid down my street, for it will be my most fervent wish come true.

How's that for a ballsy?


MEMORY LANE: I blogged yesterday about Carrie and JPL having performed three of tonight's Elvis songs and I commented that neither did them much justice. I still maintain that about pretty much everything JPL attempted in season three, but because my memory was a bit foggy (after all, I have slept since then) and because I really did not like Carrie Underwood at all last season, I decided to take another listen to her rendition of Trouble from the top five show. You know, some time and distance from the emotional ties with these kids can really help the objectivity. She really did the song quite well. And she even kicked the mic stand down on the first try, Taylor.

Happy Idol Night. Day.