it's all in the placement, part 2...

It's always interesting when something that has been staring me right in the face finally makes sense.

I have to clarify my last entry with all the fun facts. Something was bugging me when I was writing it initially. When I finally realized my error, the complete picture emerged, though, so it is true that sometimes when we err it's for a reason.

[For the record, I transposed the order of the final three lineup for season four; it is now fixed.]

As I said then, so much has been said about the importance (or lack thereof) of the order of performance. The pimp spot guarantees survival, first in line puts a kid at risk, etc., has been much the topic of debate. There was even the interesting phenomenon of the second singer always getting axed on final five night, and I tried to make some sense if it, if it is indeed significant at all.

But after realizing I had screwed up the order of performance in last year's final three, fixed the order and it fully dawned on me that no one performing first on final three night had ever advanced beyond the three, it hit me.

Perhaps performance order on final three night tells a story. Personally, I think it does.

If you read that entry, you read that I speculated that Katharine would lead off, because she anchored the show last week. I further speculated that Elliott would close the show because Taylor had gone last just two weeks ago, and they are adamant about switching around the order.

I have changed my mind.

I have concluded, and you don't have to agree, of course, that the lineup on final three night is dictated by votes. The kid with the fewest going into the three will go first; the kid with the most goes last. That is why, in all four seasons, the kid who goes first on final three night always goes away the next night.

Season one

Nikki had just bumped off Tamyra in a boot that makes the Chris boot pale in comparison. She was an unlikely final three participant, alongside Justin and Kelly, both of whom were favorites throughout the competition.

The lineup that night: Nikki, Justin, Kelly. I do not doubt for one second that Kelly was the top vote getter going into that episode.

Season two

In the best final three EVER, Kim Locke had fought style issues, the wrath of Simon and Heatwave to emerge as the lone girl to challenge the Goliaths of Clay and Ruben. We know now, because it's been widely reported that, until the finale, Clay was outpolling Ruben consistently, with Ruben even visiting the bottom on top five night.

The lineup that night: Kim, Ruben, Clay.

Season three

Fantasia had visited the seal more often than any other Idol winner, and little Jasmine, with help from a faceful of tears and her home state of Hawaii, had just knocked off the perfect LaToya. We now know that Fantasia knocked off Diana in the finale by a well-mascara'd eyelash.

The lineup that night: Jasmine, Fantasia, Diana.

Season four

I would bet my checkbook that Bo and Carrie separately were outvoting Vonzell and fourth-place finisher Anthony together. And I have no doubt that Carrie had distanced herself from the field going into the Clive show.

The lineup that night: Vonzell, Bo, Carrie.

Once or even twice could be coincidental, but four times? So Tuesday night's lineup could indeed tell a story. And if this theory pans, and the lineup is determined by the vote on top 4 night, Katharine will go first, followed by the two men. But in what order our two men will be placed is anybody's guess.

While I think it's dangerous to use DialIdol as anything more than what it's supposed to be, last week's results showed a rather significant margin between second and third. And the margin between first and second was statistically insignificant, it was so close.

So I don't know who will go second. Or last.

But I don't think it will have anything to do with simple protocol. Again, you can call me crazy, but it makes sense.

I knew all this trend stuff would come in handy eventually.