it's all in the placement...

There's been a lot of speculation this year, as in all seasons, about performance order. Lineups do seem to be crucial during the early stages of the competition, when there are 24 then 12 contestants, and we're still trying to get to know them, remember their names and figuring out which ones we like, which ones we don't and which ones make us go "huh?"

But after time, and the field is reduced to a handful of wannabes, the order of performance really becomes only important in terms of knowing which last two numbers to dial. The pimp spot - the last performer on a given night - is the only spot that carries with it a history of success. In four and a half seasons, only two Idols have been eliminated on the night following a pimp spot performance, Anthony Fedorov last season, who finished fourth and Clay Aiken, who ended season two with Bridge over Troubled Water but was beaten out by a hair in the finale by Ruben Studdard.

However, there is some interesting history to final five night, so it might be interesting to watch who the "lucky" kid is that gets put in the second slot on Tuesday.

In every season, the Idol who sings second on final five night has ended his or her run on the show as the fifth-place finisher.

In season one, the lineup was: Kelly Clarkson, RJ Helton, Tamyra Gray, Justin Guarini with Nikki McKibbin in the anchor position. (And it was Burt Bacharach night, if you're interested.) RJ, of course, was the one booted.

Season two's F5 order was: Ruben Studdard, Trenyce, Josh Gracin, Kimberley Locke and Clay Aiken. The next night was the big "shocker" of Ruben in the bottom two with Trenyce while a shocked Josh, who had imploded the night before, looking on amazed. And we waved bye-bye to Trenyce. (The theme? Neil Sedaka/60s night.)

The final five on season three lined up like this: Diana DeGarmo, George Huff, LaToya London, Jasmine Trias and Fantasia Barrino, each singing two Big Band songs, back to back with a bit of banter between numbers. And, of course, I shed many tears as my George bit the dust.

And last season Anthony Fedorov was the first of the five, followed by the doomed Scott Savol, Vonzell Solomon, Bo Bice and Carrie Underwood. Cheers were heard all over the land the next night as Savol met his [some thought] overdue elimination.

Now, of course, this could be completely coincidental, but since coincidental occurrences are no fun to speculate about, I'll just leave that at that. But there could be something to it.

Of course the fan bases know who their kid is, and it won't matter if that kid sings first, third or last, but by the time we reach F5 status, we've dropped singers with significant voting blocs, and those voters need somewhere to go. Often those voters, like the abandoned Kellie Pickers, have a second fave. I would expect, for instance, that many of the Pickler People will shift to Katharine, considering the two were roomies and BFF. Others might shift to Elliott, because he showed such emotion at Pickler's demise last week. The others may just be waiting to see (hear?) who deserves it most.

Then there are the new fans. It's difficult for us hardcore addicts to understand, but there are some Idol viewers out there who don't tune in until the field has been reduced by half or more. Some of them aren't up for the grind that this five-month show tends to be. Others don't want to have to endure the screeching of the early, lesser contestants, and some are just trying to figure out what the fuss is all about.

So there's a whole new crop of dialers out there. At this point, leading off might be a good thing, as it's a first impression and with two songs this time, that first impression can lead to a second one that delivers some votes. Same holds true, as it does from the beginning of the game, with the last spot. But it is conceivable that the second slotted kid gets glossed over, in the shadow of that first impression.

Or, it could be a fluke. Whichever.

So what will the lineup look like tomorrow? I expect to see Chris leading off, since he was in the pimp spot last week and they've been pretty much doing it that way all season, followed by [sorry, sweetie] Paris, who also performed in the final three. I think we'll see Taylor in the pimp spot, since of the five, he's the only one who hasn't been the final performer at all during the finals, even though Chris has had it twice. I would expect Kat to be fourth, since she was first last time, which leaves Elliott in the middle.

No additional spoilers to report, just rumors floating out there, some of which sound credible. And, by the way, the Bon Jovi selection has been confirmed, so someone will be singing Bon Jovi, presumably the song by whom I shared in an earlier entry.

Is it Tuesday yet?