Thursday, March 09, 2006

oh the agony of defeat...

I am struggling with this one, the choosing of the probable dead singers walking. The girls aren't that hard; the guys are giving me fits.

So, to procrastinate, I decide to go ahead and upload the black and whites for tonight's reveal. But who to choose? I just don't know, because there are so many possibilities, so many variables to consider.

So I uploaded pretty much everybody except Taylor, Chris and Mandisa. How about we switch things up a bit and just predict who won't be leaving?

I still want to keep all eight guys and dump four women instead. (And I have those four women in mind.) But because I know they won't do that because they want an even-gendered pool of people to massacre Stevie Wonder next week, some good stuff is gonna get shafted along with the bad.

Too bad.

Nigel (AI producer) Lythgoe has gone on record to say that two of tonight's bootees are to be expected, and two are surprises. "Shocking," he calls them. Hell, Nigel thinks anytime a contestant is told he/she is going home and doesn't, that it's shocking, so I don't put a whole lot of store in his assessments. (Besides, what better way to boost the Thursday ratings a bit than to entice people to tune in, just in case the promise of Bo Bice on stage won't do that.) But it does make one wonder if the expected top 12 will look, well, expected.

Tonight's victims will not include Mandisa. We know that. So that leaves the other seven women.

Maybe the surprise will be that Katharine, despite her assurances to the contrary, really does want off the show, and she agreed to let them "boot" her rather than just quit? There's always that possibility. But aside from that scenerio, there will be a chair with Katharine's name on it tonight.

Maybe time and patience just wore off for Paris, considering that she's not living up to the promise of her auditions and seems to be slipping in the polls. Paris, if she continues on the song choice path she's taking, will have her funeral footage shown. I just doubt it will be today.

Perhaps the Pickler felt the wrath of Carrie Underwood fans everywhere who stopped dialing in protest of Simon's Tuesday night remark. Or maybe she picked up a case of food poisoning and just wants out of calamari-land. Fat chance.

So our likely victims will come from the quartet of steadily-improving Ayla, sleepy ballad queen Lisa and sacrificial lambs, Melissa and Kinnik. There would be nothing shocking or even remotely surprising about losing the lambs, so only one of them is a goner, and I don't think which one is any big shocker.

On the men's side, chairs with the names Taylor and Chris were ordered back in January. They're staying put. (Unless, of course, Chris did take that Fuel gig. If so, see Katharine, above.) So that leaves us with the other six.

An early exit for Ace would be a surprise, but not out of the question, considering his last two falsetto-laden performances have pretty much tanked, and he can't be our Father Figure for forever. Besides his brother is hotter.

I speculated about Elliott's future already, and that concern holds after a vocally-perfect but uninspired Bryan Adams imitation last night. That adorable sex-pot Kevin found himself in the bottom three last week, and as any veteran AI watcher will attest, landing in the bottom three can be like pouring gasoline on the flames of dialing fingers everywhere, so it's not necessarily a bad thing. Ask Ruben; ask Bo.

That leaves three.

I've contended throughout the semis that the teen boys are going to be hurt by vote splitting, and, since many will run to Kevin's rescue after last week, Will, especially following his dreary performance last night, could bear the brunt of that effort. I don't think the producers had much in the way of hope for either Bucky or Gedeon, but both have steadily increased their fan bases with terrific performances. (And we can never discount the anger of the voters, lashing out against the pimp-machine.
I pleaded guilty already.) But each of them could find that their off-stage personaes may be more of a hindrance than a help, especially Gedeon, who is still perceived by some as a cocky little kid with too many teeth.

[NOTE: I am still reading criticism of Gedeon's reply to Ryan's insipid " you think you're in the bottom three" nonsense last week. Geeze! Of course Gedeon knew he wasn't in the bottom three people! There were two guys still left and two on the stage and everybody knows that the last one called to the stage comes from the last pair. So I hope nobody avoided his number on the basis of that comment. Whew. Got that off my chest.]

So what's a junkie to do when she feels confident about three, but completely stumped on the fourth? She closes her eyes and eenie meenie minees.

So here's the moe:

Who I want: Kinnik and Lisa.
Who should: Kinnik and Lisa.
Who will: Lisa and Kinnik.

Who I want: Will and Kevin. (I still love the kid; he's just not ready.)
Who should: Kevin and Will.
Who will: Will and (please, please let it not be) Elliott.

tag: american idol


Blogger Frances said...

Jennifer, you suggestion that Elliot might go home is causing me to stress.

While my heart belongs to Ace, everything else belongs to Elliot.

I'd prefer to keep all the guys, but if two must go, then I'm willing to say bye to Kevin, Will, Bucky or Gedeon.

I'm really hoping for Kevin and Bucky to leave. I don't think either of them are up to par compared to the others.

As far as the ladies are concerned, I say leave Mandisa, Melissa and Katharine. The others can do whatever.

3:07 PM, March 09, 2006  
Blogger jennifer said...

I really hope the Elliott feeling is wrong, but Nigel says the second elimination came "out of the blue" and is "shocking." I don't think Gedeon or Bucky would qualify as "shocking", and all reports, as sketchy and non-scientific as they are, plus my personal experience last night say that of those guys, Elliott's line was the most wide open.

It's just a gut feeling, and I really hope I'm wrong, although I would miss both Gedeon and Bucky too.

3:36 PM, March 09, 2006  
Anonymous Suzanne said...

Gosh I hope it's not Taylor! lol I don't like this Shocker stuff....Wish it would be Kellie hehehe

6:36 PM, March 09, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I got nervous lasr night, I got through to vote for Eliiot with no busy signals at all!!!
Let's hope for the best!!!!

6:37 PM, March 09, 2006  
Blogger purplvr said...

I'm a little worried about Elliott too. He deserves another shot because he really is an awesome singer.
Now, about tonight's executees:
For the girls, I hope Melissa and Kellie go home! Fat chance about Kellie, so it'll probably be Kinnik who gets booted.
Ah just weeish I cud lack Kayellee but Ah just cayant, dangit!
For the guys, I really hope they put the two youngsters (Chicken Little & Donny Osmond) out of their misery. Give them a few more years and they'll probably become great. Or not. But neither one has a snowball's chance of winning this competition.

7:26 PM, March 09, 2006  
Anonymous Suzanne said...

I know what you mean, I just can't like her either. Her country bumpkin routine has a few holes in it too. Seems back in the early days of the show she said she hadn't sung in front of an audience before...but she was in the Miss North Carolina Pageant and also did a Local Television Talent Show. I always felt like her routine was fake. JMO Well, hang on to yer butts, it's almost Idol Time!

7:46 PM, March 09, 2006  

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Thanks Rob for the awesome image!