Monday, March 13, 2006

season five: a reader's digest version...

I'm a little late this year, coming up with a predicted execution order, but dang, this season is a tough call. After all, I would have wagered that Ayla Brown would be in the final grouping.


While there are clear favorites for the top of the heap, it's the bottom of the heap that's causing me to wring my hands. It's kind of nice having a group of twelve, all of whom can actually sing.

But, throwing all caution to the wind, here I go.

Melissa will be first to go. Most of what carried her to the finals was the rush to save her from being told to pack her bags, and, in a field of just women, it was easy to spend time voting for her. But this time she's in the pack with the guys, and a lot of those Melissa voters from last week prefer one of the men. She will likely outperform some of the others, but her fan base just isn't that powerful.

If Lisa performs two more sleepy ballads, she very well could take the eleventh spot, as I still contend that voters are going to favor the guys over the gals. If she does step it up, and honestly I think she has more vocal talent than a couple of the other women, 11th could be Bucky, but going with what we've heard and seen thus far, I'm leaning toward Ms. Tucker.

Bucky could be in trouble by the tenth spot. Either that, or he will have built his fan base with voters coming over from Melissa. (Notice how I'm hedging every one of these?) He seems to be gaining in popularity, and there is a grassroots "Save Bucky" movement to get him on the tour, but his luck may just run out by the time he secures his spot.

While I would normally reserve ninth place for the longest shot, I think Kevin will push ahead, having undergone some makeover magic and having maturely withstood judging criticism, and, as the only boy teen still left, he's going to continue to benefit from the Hello Kitty phones. This could be the first of the "shocking eliminations." So I'm going to go with that prediction and call for a 9th place finish for Paris, whose "look at me!" act and personality changes will have driven voters blind to her phone numbers. And this will begin the string of the "shockers."

Elliott will go eighth, just prior to what we're expecting will be "standards week." He will have continued to deliver strong performances, but he will have been hampered by song choice issues, overshadowed by the showmanship of some of the others and totally swamped by the "save Kevin voters." We will gnash teeth and swear to stop watching the show. And vow revenge on the less-talented ones still there.

Now it's time for Kevin, as the Elliott voters come out in force to crucify the kid who they blame for Elliott's premature exit. So Kevin gets to sing on tour where he, no doubt, will draw in screaming 12-year-olds to venues everywhere.

Time for another shocker, because the push to oust will have subsided and, despite the packed field, certain voters will assume their contestant is on totally safe territory. So look for Mandisa to sing her swan song in sixth. We will gnash teeth and swear to stop watching the show. And vow revenge on the less-talented ones still there.

Voters mourning Mandisa will join the fans of the other ousted contestants and dismiss Kellie Pickler. She will cry. Katharine will cry. Katharine will hug her friend like there's no tomorrow. (Well, for Kellie there won't be.) Katharine wants Kellie fans to know what a close friend she is to the little Kellie-mari. After all, if you can't have Kellie, well...

It will work and Paula will cry at the elimination of Ace the following week. I will cry at the loss of Ace's cute brother, who I will have become quite attached to in the preceding weeks.

We will have our first male-heavy final three since season two. The judges will hand two of them song selections perfect for their vocal range, and give the third an obscure, virtually-impossible song to sing or a song that was performed flawlessly already in the competition which will naturally draw negative comparisons to the "original", thereby assuring that person's dismissal.

Goodbye Taylor. We've come to both love and loathe your whoa's and whoo's. Taylor will shout SOUL PATROL before exiting stage left.

And in a grand finale that will not live up to the hype unless they bring on Skynyrd again, Chris Daughtry will become the second male American Idol.

Of course I have no clue how it's really going to go down. I just hope we have fun watching it happen.


Anonymous Anonymous said...

I totally follow your logic! I'd be sad to see Mandisa leave but agree she could be one of those shockers. I'd love to see Chris and Taylor as the last two...I'm sure Taylor will leave smilin'.

12:13 PM, March 13, 2006  
Anonymous Beancounter_in_Birmingham said...

If Dialidol results are to be believed, then I think Kellie Pickler has a much stronger following than you give her credit for, unfortunately.

I say unfortunately because its about time for an idol outside of the Kelly Clarkson/Carrie Underwood mold. Someone like Chris or Taylor.

2:19 PM, March 13, 2006  
Blogger jennifer said...

Oh I don't discount the Kellie following; it's probably the largest of any of the contestants this season. (Second, though, maybe to Ace.) I also think that early followings can be fickle. That following will carry her until the other fan bases start ganging up. Unlike Carrie, I don't see her bringing in those voters.

And if the DialIdol results are to be believed, Ayla would still be there and Lisa would be gone. So, while it's an interesting discussion starter, and they really did have a good prediction record in the early rounds, I'm not putting a whole lot of store in their results.

2:46 PM, March 13, 2006  
Blogger Dave said...

My sense is that the early Kellie followers have started to abandon her because they're tired of the "I'm a sheltered girl from the country" act.

We got that last year from Carrie (whose voice is much, much better).

Melissa picked up some steam last week, but I don't think it will get her very deep into the finals, although it may get her on the tour.

I think the competition right now is Chris and Taylor's to lose. Everyone I know loves Taylor. Even the people who don't like him don't hate him. Other contestants (Paris, Kellie, Kevin) have their diehards but they also have their detractors.

I see Taylor as being able to pick up a lot of followers as people get eliminated, too.

I guess this means now I have to write a column on how I think the results are going to shake out. Thanks, Jennifer!!!

3:13 PM, March 13, 2006  
Blogger jennifer said...

Yes Dave, you must!! I will be there to read it.

You know, that Taylor thing really is puzzling me. I love Taylor. Really do. (Bought his t-shirt and everything...) But I can't see TPTB wanting him to win, because I don't think he fits "the suit." Not that Chris does, but Taylor less so. I would sell my husband to see a Chris/Taylor finale.

Oh hell, what am I saying. I'd sell my husband for far less than that!

3:18 PM, March 13, 2006  
Blogger MP said...

Your logic is good but I hope it's wrong. I hate that you were correct on the song selection for the boys. Blah. So what Stevie Wonder songs are they signing? Hmm??
Kevin leave first, then Melissa, then Ace..then Bucky ...Lisa, Paris, Elliott..Kellie, Taylor, Katherine..Chris the winner.

4:27 PM, March 13, 2006  
Blogger jennifer said...

LOL Mary Pat. I hope I'm wrong too. If I had my way a lot of the ones would be leaving MUCH earlier than I think they will.

I'm really working on those song spoilers, but so far no luck. Maybe after dress rehearsal tomorrow, before the show starts.

4:30 PM, March 13, 2006  
Blogger purplvr said...

I don't really care what the order is of the executions ... I just hope it comes down to Chris and Taylor, like Jennifer said. I definitely want Chris to win and my other half wants Taylor to win. Either way, I'm sure the "loser" will still come out a winner!

6:54 PM, March 13, 2006  
Blogger Conni H. said...

I think you are right on the money. I have no doubt that Chris will be the winner.... but I think the first runner up will likely be Katharine.

I love your blog.

9:52 AM, March 14, 2006  

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