Tuesday, March 11, 2008

there's a prog in my nostication!...

Ack! It's time to predict, forecast, speculate, and otherwise make a fool out of myself, trying to foresee into the future (well, the next eleven weeks or so anyway) and try to decide in what order the 12 remaining Idol kids will be executed. Or be appearing on Ellen, depending on your perspective.

I got nine right out of 12 in predicting the final 12, even before they screeched a note, but some of those choices were destined to be right, so I wouldn't exactly say my record is anything remotely in the vicinity of "good." But it was fun to try.

Remember, the top 10 go on the summer tour. The other two will become the footnotes in American Idol history. And since there's no way to know which one will build a rabid and vocal fanbase (aside from David #1's anyway) and there's no way to know which one is going to totally forget the lyrics (an unforgivable sin, unless your name is David), get totally snotty with the judges, start preaching from the microphone or turn in a showstopping masterpiece, I do take my own projection with more than one grain of salt.

So here goes nothing:

12th Place. Also known as last. In and out. Joining such luminaries as Melissa McGhee, Brandon Rogers, Vanessa Oliverez, Lindsey Cardinale and that girl from season three whose name I refuse to type, will be Chikezie, who's going to lose more than his last name. While there are girls with less stage talent than the former Eze guy, Chikezie is really the most forgettable of the men. And the memory of that orange suit is still lingering.

11th Place. Joining the ranks of Mikalah Gordon, Charlie Grigsby, Matt Rogers, Stephanie Edwards and Chicken Little will be the first of the women. And I predict it will be Kristy Lee Cook, who will have used up all of her get out on bail free cards, after refusing to find her country roots and her country identity, which would have separated her from the pack.

10th Place. Reserving a spot on the tour by the narrowest of margins, kinda like Amy Adams, EJ Day, Julia DeMato, Chris Sligh, Lisa Tucker and Jessica Sierra (well, let's hope not just like Jessica Sierra...) will be Amanda Overmyer, who will still not have figured out that to advance one needs to show nuance in one's vocal stylings. And by the third week of the finals it will have become quite clear that the nurse has grown tired of the show, but not until the voters stick her on a four-month summer tour, forcing her into group sings and pointy poses as payback for the hair.

9th Place. Ending up in the unmemorable ninth spot alongside Mandisa, Jim Verraros, Camile Velasco, Nikko Smith, Gina Glocksen and (if we're still counting him) Corey Clark, will be David Hernandez or David #3. His stripper story will have faded by this point, but voters will have aligned with the other Davids and some of the girls, leaving this David caught with his, ahem, pants down.

8th Place. This spot has historically been filled with some of the most memorable contestants. Bucky Covington, Nadia Turner, Rickey Smith, Jon Peter Lewis, Haley Scarnato and AJ Gill (okay, so maybe not all of them were memorable - I had to look that one up) will be joined by Syesha Mercado, who will prove not so memorable, or, more appropriately "the other singer who's name isn't Carly".

7th Place. This is the first of the SHOCKER ELIMINATIONS. At least it has been in the past. Finding her name in a list with Jennifer Hudson won't be so bad, but she will also have to be listed alongside Ace Young, Ryan Starr, Anwar Robinson, Kim Caldwell and - wait for it - Sanjaya! But it will belong to Brooke White, who, by this time, will have run out of instruments and Carly Simon songs. Dang that Carly.

6th Place. Now they're doing double duty, singing two songs of various themes. This is where we separate the Picklers from the Yamins. One less-than-stellar performance can be forgotten - or in some cases ignored - but two is too many. Notable names are in this group, including the aforementioned Kellie Pickler, Phil Stacey, Constantine Maroulis, Christina Christian, Carmen Rasmusen and everyone's favorite crooner, John Stevens. They will be joined by Ramiele Malubay, who will have turned in totally acceptable performances to this point but will fall victim to "the greatest group of contestants we've ever had."

Now this is where things get dicey, because I can see any of the remaining five contestants standing alone on stage, belting out a sappy song about love, rainbows and puppies, amid a blizzard of confetti. So don't quote me.

5th Place. The end is in sight and the results shows are becoming more and more banter-filled, because they still insist on dragging them out to one hour. Idol has given back already, and we viewers will be either saying get it over already or we will be whining about what a long hot summer it's gonna be without a David on Tuesdays. It's a coin toss. But joining the ranks of Chris Richardson, RJ Helton, Trenyce, Paris Bennett, the adorable George Huff and the not-so-adorable Scott Savol will be Michael Johns. Why? Because he was the scissors to the rock.

4th Place. This is the traditional WHAT?? moment. The place where favorites go to die. And go on to star on television, star in Broadway musicals or make mega-millions on their debut albums and see their names turned into verbs. This is where people get Tamyra'd. Like Tamyra Gray did. And Chris Daughtry. And LaToya London. And LaKisha Jones. And Josh Gracin. And Anthony Fedorov. This is not a bad place to stop. And joining the fourth-place fraternity will be David Cook. And his combover. 19E will be on the phone immediately in negotiations with Lionel Ritchie and I will be downloading my first track of the 7th season.

3rd Place. Oh the pain of this spot. So close. Close enough to smell the confetti, but forced to sing backup at the finale. So unfair. And while the future has been bright for the #4s, third has not been as kind. Sure there's been Kim Locke and Elliott Yamin, who arguably could have won their seasons, but when was the last time you've thought of Vonzell Solomon or Nikki McKibbin? What's Melinda Doolittle up to? And then there was Jasmine Trias. And so the question remains: who will get thrown under the bus with the Clive Davis and/or Paula Abdul song selection? My prediction: Carly Smithson.

2nd Place. Joining in the ranks of the runners-up, following in the footsteps of Justin Guarini, Diana DeGarmo, Bo Bice, Kat McPhee, Blake Lewis and, of course, Clay Aiken, will be Jason Castro, who we will have watched bloom from a shy, dreadlocked guy to a confident dreadlocked guy. There will be screams of manipulation, voter fraud and overall hanky-panky as fan groups from all of the ousted contestants will have banded together to derail the force that is the Arch-Angel.

1st Place. I just don't see any stop to the David Archuleta train. The producers are drooling over him. The judges are drooling over him. The teenage girls are drooling over him. Their mothers are drooling over him. There hasn't been a cute, clean-living, talented young guy from Utah this adorable since Donny Osmond. And the show needs a big-selling winner to make its critics forget all about the seasons that have passed since Underwood won it all. So barring any unexpected catastrophes (or any pornographic photos that get "accidentally leaked," the favorite going in is going to be the Idol coming out and have his portrait hanging on the winners wall next to Clarkson, Studdard, Barrino, Underwood, Hicks and the girl that won last year.

There you go. My unscientific analysis of how the season is going to unfold. My analysis is as good as yours. So, then...

What is yours?

Tonight: the Idols butcher take on the Beatles. This could be interesting.

Let the seventh season begin!



Anonymous chris(daughtry)rocks said...

Jennifer, thanks for the analysis! It'll be interesting (and maddening!) to see how it all plays out. I'm terrible at the prediction game, so I won't even try. But I think you're spot-on about Jason Castro. He's kinda the dark-horse in this competition. He's shy and a bit mysterious, which makes people want to see/know more about him. He's talented, yet completely unassuming. And if it weren't for the dreads, you'd hardly know he was there. But he gets up there and turns in stronger performances week after week. And if David Hernandez and Michael Johns go before he does, Jason could easily pick up their voters.

Have a good day, everyone! And see you late tonight with your impressions of girls sing Beatles.

3:16 PM, March 11, 2008  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

And don't feel too bad for the two that don't get to go on tour. Sometimes they end up on "Celebrity Rehab" or "The Surreal Life"


3:20 PM, March 11, 2008  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

verrrrrry interesting. I think I agree with you except I HOPE Amanda goes sooner and I THINK Rameile will go sooner.

Does anybody have any spoilers about which Beatles songs the kids are singing tonight?

3:27 PM, March 11, 2008  
Blogger Dave said...

Are you afraid that if you type her name, she'll appear to haunt you, Jennifer?


5:05 PM, March 11, 2008  
Blogger laura said...

As far as the 6 spot, it always tends to be someone I can't stand--last season being the only exception (Sanjaya couldn't have hung on one more week?) This season, with Danny eliminated, it has to go to Carly. There is just something about that girl...

David Cook in the 4 spot echoes of Daughtry 2 years ago - Completely logical to me!

And you are right about the Archuleta train--no stopping that one, despite the inability to carry on post-performance banter.

9:41 PM, March 11, 2008  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Kristy Lee Cook, one of the last 12 finalists on this season’s American Idol is in a provocative video for a toothbrush. Check it out here. www.kristyleecookhydrabrush.com

12:43 AM, March 12, 2008  

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Thanks Rob for the awesome image!