Monday, February 18, 2008

so many kids, so little time...

We get to start killing hopes and dreams tomorrow! It's been awhile.

The top 12 guys take the stage for '60s music night (the first-ever themed semi-final episode with a songbook of just 50 titles), followed by the final 12 gals on Wednesday and, well, you know what's gonna happen... four of them will get shot right between the eyes on Thursday.

This appears to be a pretty evenly-matched group of contestants, with the requisite few for which the pimping started early and the traditional "who are they?" entrants that are usually fodder in the opening few rounds.

So with that, and a hit and miss viewing of the audition episodes, it's my duty to try to predict who's gonna fall when. That way I can keep this as a historical record so that I can look back and laugh at my own stupidity in May.

It's tough to predict failure when I haven't really had the chance to hear all of them, but hey, it's an annual tradition.


Chikeze Eze. Catchy name. He'll be gone before I can learn to spell it without looking it up, but not in the early rounds.

Colton Berry. He'll be gone before Chikeze Eze. There's not enough room on the big stage for a ton of "boys." He'll be the casualty.

Danny Noriega. Cute kid, but I think he's going to get on my nerves. And if he gets on my last nerve, well, it's not unlikely he'll get on other people's too.

David Archuleta. I won't be surprised if David's around for the second version of Idol Gives Back, if not beyond.

David Cook. There will be two Davids in the final 12. He'll be one of them.

David Hernandez. Three Davids in the final 12 is one too many Davids. Sorry David.

Garrett Haley. Might be the first one eliminated. If not first, then second.

Jason Castro. He could make it through on the power of the hair alone. I said that about Anwar Robinson too.

Jason Yager. He will join Garrett in the kiss and cry area after the first show.

Luke Menard. Somebody has to make it through on the basis of the superficial and shallow voters who just think he's hawt. But enough about me.

Michael Johns. This Aussie could win the whole thing.

Robbie Carrico. I hope he has plans already for a summer income.


Alaina Alexander Whitaker. Don't get used to that name. You won't hear it for long.

Alexandrea Lushington. Long name; little time.

Amanda Overmyer. She'll make it through to the top 10, but no guarantees after that unless she remembers that this is American Idol and Big Band Night does not call for a growl.

Amy Davis. Of course the easily-spelled people are going to be history sooner rather than later.

Asia'h Epperson. Top 10.

Brooke White. I love this girl. Love, love, love her.

Carly Smithson. Arguably the most-pimped of all of the contestants, it could lead to an early exit for the Irish lass with the tattoos.

Joanne Borgella. She's no Melinda Doolittle. She's not even LaKisha.

Kady Malloy. Early exit.

Kristy Lee Cook. She won't be roadkill too early, but she won't make it as far as I think some people think.

Ramiele Malubay. Top 10. Easily.

Syesha Mercado. She could sneak through, but she needs to tone down on the power. Subtlety Syesha, please! Not everything has to be at scream level. Otherwise it's going to get old fast.

My top 12?

Remiele Malubay
Kristy Lee Cook
Carly Smithson
Brooke White
Asia'h Epperson
Amanda Overmyer
Danny Noriega
David Archuleta
David Cook
Michael Johns
Luke Menard
Jason Castro

Okay, there's mine. Now show us yours!

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Anonymous gavintiegirl said...

Our predictions are off by two:

My Top 12 Prediction:
1. Amanda Overmyer – Rocker chick….will stick around a while
2. Brooke White….I call her snow white (she has never watched a rated R movie – she won’t make it to the top 5)
3. Carly Smithson – Not really a fan, but I think she will do well.
4. Danny Norriega – Great singer – powerful voice.
5. David Archuleta – Cute, young, and nice voice…he will do well
6. Joanne Borgella – there is always a large African American girl and she is it. Very pretty.
7. Michael Johns – Really cute and will probably make it to the final
8. Syesha Mercado – From Syesha down….I am not overly impressed. But I haven’t really seen any of them for long periods of time. 1-7 are going the distance.
9. Asia’h Epperson
10. Luke Menard
11. Ramiele Malubay
12. Robbie Carrico

2:20 PM, February 18, 2008  
Anonymous gavintiegirl said...

I just realized that I didn't keep in mind that it needs to be 6 boys and 6 girls at the that the case? You think I would remember these things. Durrr.

So in keeping with the boy/girl thing - I have updated my prediction below:

1. Amanda Overmyer
2. Brooke White
3. Carly Smithson
4. Joanne Borgella
5. Syesha Mercado
6. Asia’h Epperson
7. Danny Norriega
8. David Archuleta
9. Michael Johns
10. Luke Menard
11. David Cook
12. Robbie Carrico

Here we go again!!!

2:34 PM, February 18, 2008  
Blogger Dave said...

I admire your onions, Jennifer! I'm not brave enough to predict a Top 12 before having heard everyone sing, but I admire people who are.

To me, the early shoo-ins are David Archuletta, Amanda, Carly, Kristy Lee and Michael. I think everyone else is in play. I'll post my predicted top 12 after Wednesday night's show.

2:56 PM, February 18, 2008  
Blogger Kristi Mantoni said...

I don't know about the top 12 but I'm not letting my eye candy go without a fight! VOTE LUKE!!!!!! LOL

3:06 PM, February 18, 2008  
Blogger jennifer said...

I don't know if it's onions, but part of it is gut and the other part is just going on how much airplay the show has given some versus others, which can prove that sometimes it's not about talent entirely.

There's going to be at least one that makes me sit up and say whoa...

3:07 PM, February 18, 2008  
Blogger Dave said...

Face time is a tremendous factor, which is why I was surprised that so many of the people who were shown during the auditions got whacked early on in Hollywood and didn't even make the Top 50.

It makes the advantage given to Carly, David A. and all the others all that more pronounced.

6:06 PM, February 18, 2008  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Jennifer your good, I didn't watch enough of the audition to have any feeling about any of them yet. I do think we have a better bunch then last year!

Didn't they use to have a wild card in the early seasons? I can't remember how it worked, except at some point each judge would get to bring back someone they thought should get a second chance. I thought that's what happened with Clay?


6:37 PM, February 18, 2008  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I have a new plan and I think you should all join me! I think that for the first few weeks we should all vote for the people who got no face time during the audition episodes, just to even the playing field a bit. (Unless the really, really, really suck, of course!) They always fall early without having a chance so I think this year we should start a movement to rebel against the "pimping"! What do ya think?

7:29 PM, February 18, 2008  
Blogger jennifer said...

Dori, the wildcard shows (I LOVED THEM!) lasted through the first three seasons when there were 32 semi-finalists competing only once to advance. (Except S1, when there were fewer finalists.) There were four rounds of competition resulting in 8 finalists (two from each show would advance) and then a wildcard where some were given a second chance.

The judges would choose one each and then America would vote through the fourth and last finalist. Clay was America's wildcard choice in S2, after losing out to Kim Locke and Ruben Studdard in his early group round.

7:31 PM, February 18, 2008  
Blogger laura said...

Brave, indeed. I can't put any money on the table until I've heard them sing with my own ears. After all, Garrett Haley may be unbelievable...I mean there is about a 1% chance...right? So I will just keep my mouth shut until Thursday morning. :)

7:45 PM, February 18, 2008  
Blogger DrillerAA said...

Jennifer, I think you're pretty much correct. However, I think Brooke White has enough of a nerves issue to blow up on the lyrics in the first couple of rounds. I would replace that pick with Kady Malloy

8:42 PM, February 18, 2008  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Carly needs to go and go quick. Seems the little Irish lassie already had a major record label contract, replete with music video. It bombed, but nevertheless she ought to make way for somebody who needs their first big break.

9:54 PM, February 18, 2008  
Blogger Sara said...

Jennifer, I'm with you on Brooke White - I absolutely love her!! I hope she stays around for a while, because I'm really looking forward to listening to her each week.

And is it just me, or does it seem like 50 songs isn't really all that many to choose from? Especially considering the breadth of styles among these contestants, it just seems like far too few for my liking.

12:16 AM, February 19, 2008  
Blogger DrillerAA said...

Anonymous, half of the contestants this year have had recording contracts, been back-up singers, had tv roles or other show business experience. The only rule is that you cannot currently have a recording deal. Regardless of experience, all of the contestants look at AI as their first big break because of the exposure. So, forget about the backgrounds and enjoy the competition.

7:50 AM, February 19, 2008  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

To Anon:

I like that Idea....I hae a feeling that the o4 boys we never heard are absolutely amazing. Garrett for instance...there is no smippets of his singing ANYWHERE out there, trust me, people have searched.

This should be interesting.

Go Michael LOL

8:10 AM, February 19, 2008  
Blogger Kristi Mantoni said...

I'm so excited I might explode and excitedness would go everywhere!

1:57 PM, February 19, 2008  
Anonymous ChrisROCKS said...

My *hopes* for Top 12:

Amanda Overmyer
Asia'h Epperson
Brooke White
Carly Smithson
Kristy Lee Cook
Ramiele Malubay

David Archuleta
David Cook
David Hernandez
Jason Castro
Michael Johns
Robbie Carrico

We shall see what happens...

5:17 AM, February 20, 2008  

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