Wednesday, March 15, 2006

time to shed a few pounds...

I'm still trying to absorb last night's 'wonder'ful finals night. The kids truly did a good job of separating themselves into distinct camps: the contenders and the pretenders. And then there is, of course, Kevin.

But before I forget, I was asked about the song played during last night's opening montage. Here's
a link. It's called Keeping the Dream Alive by Freiheit. I liked the song too.

The word is Stevie Wonder will be performing tonight, which might explain why they're taking an hour to do what can be done in seven minutes, so look for the inevitable medley and for Taylor to take his harmonica/binkie out of his pocket for a treat.

It's always good to begin an execution with a medley, after all.

So, who's safe and who's in trouble? At this point the safe ones are pretty easy to identify. Taylor, Chris, Katharine, Mandisa and Paris are probably not in any danger of being forced to take the stage, and each of them performed well or adequately enough not to merit banishment to the bottom three. Pickler is probably safe too, not because she deserves to be after last night's disaster, but because she's bolstered by a fanbase, the size of which rivals Carrie Underwood's at this point last year.

So in the bottom are the other six. Elliott does not deserve to get anybody's boot at this early stage, but his performance last night wasn't extraordinary and he still suffers from image issues. So while his future with the show must be taken with caution, at this point, I think he can breathe. I get the same feeling about Ace, who turned in yet another subpar performance, but continues to ride the pretty boy wave.

The four in biggest trouble, therefore, have to be Kevin, Lisa, Melissa and Bucky, and I think at least two of those four will fill up the bottom three.

Lisa has the problem of splitting much of the teen vote with Paris, who totally outperformed her last night, despite becoming more and more annoying by the minute. Her Signed, Sealed, Delivered got unanimous praise from the judges, but fell totally flat and programmed with me and many other voters. And she's just not picking up the support of tweens who, if given a choice between her and Paris, feel more of a connection with the one who actually looks and acts as though she's 12.

Melissa, of course, had the misfortune of being the only one of the bunch to botch the lyrics to a song that is familiar with many. "Ayla wouldn't have forgotten the words," I've read more than once today. She got a reprieve from a lot of voters acting in response to negative Simon comments; last night she got positive reviews. Positive words = complacency. Melissa's in trouble.

Personally, of the four, Bucky was my favorite, and, from what I've picked up in random cruising of message boards, his fanbase is steadily increasing. Now, the Farrah hair didn't help his cause, but I know a lot of women who are ready to kill him for it. Bucky's appeal is his genuine likability, as opposed to some of the others who are perceived as faking it. Now, I have no objection when a contestant knows he or she is vocally weaker than the others and plays up alternative angles, but it is refreshing to have someone who at least seems to be the real thing.

Which brings us to Kevin. Kevin's angle has been his cuteness, his sweetness, his good-natured playing along with the sex symbol/Chicken Little gags that have given us comic relief. His choice of Part Time Lover was inspired, as a nod to the whole joke. But he might have cost himself some valuable votes by deciding to play foil to Simon. Voters don't like contestants who come off as obnoxious when criticized. It's especially ugly to see a child sass an elder, and, if he's going after the "granny vote," I know a lot of grannies who may have just have their cheek-pinching image tarnished.

My advice to Kevin: take it. Don't talk back. Suck it up, kid. Thank them for their help, even though it's no help at all. Look a bit saddened at the jab after sweating all that makeup off. That will send people screaming to the phone to make up for the mean mean man who said mean mean stuff. Mouth off and people aren't going to give a damn.

Whew. Got that off my chest.

Okay, I've hedged enough. This really is a tough one to call.

Who I want: Kellie, Lisa, Ace (but leave his cute brother) [Lisa]

Who should: Kellie, Ace, Kevin [Kevin]

Who will: Melissa, Ace, Lisa

Who won't be back: Melissa McGhee

tag: american idol


Blogger laura said...

woah prediction godess! excellent work - i bow to the master

10:33 PM, March 15, 2006  
Blogger jennifer said...

ROFL Okay, I'll spill. Nigel said on ET that the bottom three would be "shocking." I knew any bottom three with Kevin wouldn't be shocking, and Melissa and Lisa, at least to me, weren't shocking, so I went with Ace, whose losing fans to Chris/Bucky/Taylor with consistently bad performances.

Just luck. ;o)

6:05 AM, March 16, 2006  
Anonymous Arizona said...

I Ditto Laura's comment.
Jennifer you girl are right on!

I love this show and I love this site .
Thank you Jennifer!

5:39 PM, March 16, 2006  

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Thanks Rob for the awesome image!